There’s a $3M cliff
in Coconut Grove.

To build the picture below, I pulled buyer-demand readings at a range of price points across the Grove and combined them into a single view. Where the same price showed up in more than one reading, the numbers agreed almost exactly — which is part of why I trust the shape of this curve. It isn’t one noisy snapshot; it’s the same story told several times over.

The peak is unmistakable. Buyer interest concentrates hard in the $2.5M–$3.0M band — roughly four to five times the attention drawn by listings above $4M. Then, the moment a price crosses $3M, demand drops by about 78% and never recovers its earlier height.

Above $4M, the curve flattens into a long, gentle decline. A $4M home and a $9M home draw a strikingly similar number of interested buyers. In other words, once you’re in luxury territory here, an extra few million dollars barely changes how many people are watching. The pool is thinner and far less price-sensitive. The real demand wall sits at $3M.

The Grove isn’t one market. It’s two — and the border is $3M.

What this means if you’re selling near $3M

The difference between an asking price of $2.95M and $3.15M is not a rounding error. On this curve, it can be the difference between landing in the most-watched band in the neighborhood and stepping over the edge of the cliff — potentially several times the buyer attention for a price move of well under ten percent. If your home is anywhere near that threshold, where you price it relative to $3M is one of the most consequential decisions in the entire listing strategy.

What this means if you’re buying above $4M

You likely have more leverage than the “luxury seller’s market” narrative suggests. Demand above $4M is flat and thin, which means you are competing with far fewer buyers than a headline would lead you to believe. That’s negotiating room — if you know to look for it.